The New York Times says Donald Trump is a “solid” bet to win the Republican presidential nomination — with a slightly better than 50 percent chance of becoming the GOP’s candidate.
“Mr. Trump is the clear favorite,” Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan, writes in The Times’ “Upshot” column.
Basing his opinion on PredictWise.com, which tracks political prediction markets where traders bet on who will win, Wolfers says Trump leads with 51 percent, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida with 33 percent.
Much farther behind are Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in third place with 8 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in fourth with 6 percent.
“Ted Cruz, who appears to be Mr. Trump’s most serious rival to win in Iowa, is not expected to do as well in less conservative states,” Wolfers writes.
The billionaire real-estate tycoon has been the GOP presidential front-runner since last summer.