Since Obamacare is a failure, the uncertainty surrounding its future has a major credit ratings firm nervous about health insurers. Moody’s Investor Service downgraded its outlook for the U.S. health care insurance sector to negative from stable on Thursday. The downgarde comes just days after contract documents between the Department of Health and Human Services’ and IT firm Accenture details the continuing shortfalls of healthcare.gov. If changes are not made to the sites’ back-end technology by March, the documents warn the entire health-care system may be in jeopardy.
Moody’s Analyst Steve Zaharuk, who authored the report, says it would take positive news regarding the implementation of the Affordable Care Act for the firm to upgrade the industry back to stable.
“We would need some positive enrollment numbers, the back-end problems with the exchange fixed and the regulatory environment, where changes are being made ad-hoc [stabilized]. Positive news would help the situation,” Zaharuk says.
Ramifications from the ACA will likely have a ripple effect on the health-care industry for years to come.
But Fitch Ratings’ outlook for 2014 for the health-care industry is stable, acknowledging challenges for insurers, but claiming the industry is “up for the challenge.” Also S&P has maintained its outlook for the industry as stable, according to Martin Arrick, managing director of the non-profit hospital sector.
And the true test of how the ACA will impact insurers will come at the end of March, Zaharuk says, when the administration releases its final enrollment report. So far, 2.2 million people have enrolled on both federal and state exchanges, by only 24% are between ages 18-34, falling far below the 2.7 million young and healthy the administration had originally projected for year one of the ACA.
Even though most will face fines for not having insurance once the open enrollment ends, people see the law for the lie it is, and have refused to sign up.
“The first test comes in March when we will see what enrollment looks like, if the back-end issues are fixed, if people are getting access to health care and what the costs and efficiencies are,” Zaharuk says. “IF these things don’t work, it may have a longer and more detrimental effect on the industry as they struggle under the new law.”